No bs forex trading
The stories of million dollar traders are real. It can be done. But the amount of time, energy and money which is required to make it happen is substantial. You are not going to start printing Benjamins as fast as you think. You have to be able to trade without fear. If you cannot afford it, DO NOT trade. Buy a coffee call option before the winter kicks in and hope for a freeze. Or go to Vegas and let it ride on the pass line. Your odds are about the same. Can you sit in front of a computer screen during opening market hours every Monday through Friday? If you have a 9 to 5 job, you obviously cannot day trade. Notice I said opening market hours. The liquidity tends to dry up and the risk factor increases. All the economic data usually comes out in the morning and most of the major players make their moves in the morning and then go home. You should do the same. You are going to be wrong a lot. A small loss is often the best loss. You cannot let three tick losers turn into eight tick losers. This may sound like a stupid question but there are plenty of places which still do not have really fast dsl lines or cable modems. Test your connection for speed and stability and make sure your broker will forex his phone if your connection goes down. Can you temporarily suspend any preconceived notions you may have about trading? You have ideas about trading. You probably think you know something. The real question is: Because that is the ONLY thing that matters in trading. Have you made money? And did you spend that money or lose it back to the market? Scalping is based on reading the orderbook. Scalpers watch the bids, offers, time and sales, and market profile and this is how they make their decisions. There is way more information in the orderbook than most novices realize. The idea of reading the orderbook or orderflow is definitely not a new one. Jesse Livermore was a well-known trader during the early s and when you read about his exploits in the forex Reminiscences of Stock Operator, it is trading that he was reading the orderflow. In the famous Market Wizards book, it sounded like the majority of the traders in there based trades on technical analysis but after trading for a substantial amount of time, I read that book again and I now wonder how many of those traders actually made decisions based on technical analysis. Not his fault, though. If you stand there for six months, you have to pick it up. At times, it definitely can be if you use it in conjunction with reading the orderbook. Everyone seems to think charts are important but very few people make money by only using charts so you tell me why they are so addictive. You have to know how to read the volume. Learning how to read the orderflow can help you pick much better entry and exit points. Charts appeal to that part of our brain which loves to recognize patterns. The part that wants to find meaning in the chaos. It wants to reduce everything to its simplest form and then label it. Charts have always been around but they gained a lot of popularity during times when the markets trended heavily in one direction. Reducing and labeling is generally a bad idea. An inside joke for the traders of the world…. If you want to have a decent shot at being profitable, there is one thing in particular that you always have to keep in mind. Greenspan did not move markets. Bernanke did not move markets. Yellen does not move markets. Economic numbers such as the unemployment rate and durable goods reports do not move markets. The people who buy and sell. People who run the trading desks of major banks move markets. Guys who run billion dollar hedge trading move markets. Sometimes an individual trader who can afford to swing three or four thousand contracts moves markets. You and I alone do not move markets. However, if you and I and 1, other small traders all go in the same direction at once, we will move the market. The only reason to buy a futures contract or a share of stock is because you think someone else is going to be willing to buy it at a higher price and you will be able to sell it to that person. Someone else offers to buy it higher. You sell it to him. The only difference between you and the other guy is how much money each of you has. The more money you have, the more influence you will have on the market. If you want to play in one of the biggest poker games on Earth, the game of day trading futures and stocks, there is something you must understand. You have the shortest chip stack by far. You are playing against guys who have access to trading money than you will ever see in your life and if you go up against them, you will lose. You go with them. It was once a common belief that the markets were manipulated. Over the years, it has become a common belief that they are not. The biggest myth perpetuated by those in the business is that one person cannot move the market. That is simply not true. To be honest, when I first heard about this guy, I thought he was a fictional character. Turns out, he is real. Here are three interviews with him. The Flipper is called the Flipper because he flips. The Flipper might have bids in all three markets. He might be bid contracts in the Bund, in the Bobl and 8, in the Schatz. His bids make the market look strong but in reality, he has been getting short. When he feels the time is right, he pulls his bids and then offers several thousand across all three markets. His flipping causes a chain reaction. Hyper day traders sell to get short because they are hoping for a sharp break. While everyone else is selling, the Flipper forex buying back his shorts and profiting substantially on a move that he helped create. He helped create it because he trades Size. I briefly worked for trading firm which was applying statistical arbitrage models to related stocks. This is usually very, very bad. As luck would have it, the company released a statement saying it had developed a new product which had officially been approved by the FDA. I had 1, shares. So what happens next? It goes up, of course. There are plenty of buyers. I start watching the time and sales. The stock began going down. I hit the 30s. ICOS was traded on the NYSE which, at the time, was run by specialists. The specialists could see the book. The specialists knew where the orders were. After I placed my order electronically, the specialist still had to fill it. Over the course of the next few hours, the stock continued to sell off and ended the day below the price at which it was halted. More money was interested in selling than in buying. Did one person sellshares? No day trader can swingshares. But a bank can. Or a hedge fund. Or a board member of ICOS who sees this as a perfect opportunity to dump his stock. How many chances do you get to sellshares of a stock and not move the market a penny against yourself? There was no technical reason to sell the stock at that price. Manipulation implies doing something illegal based on inside information. What happens is…someone with a lot of money buys a lot of forex or shares and moves the price up. He does so in hopes of starting a move. When others start buying, that someone sells and covers for a profit. Could someone else sell more contracts or shares and drive the price down? But we are still talking about just a few people dictating the direction. He cannot initiate moves like that. He can, however, ride a move like that. So as soon as the day forex sees that the buyer has lost the battle, he sells. The market moves down. People who are long begin to panic and cover their positions. This, in turn, drives the market down even further. Someone decides to buy 5, contracts. The reaction might lead to a three point move or a fifteen point move. It depends upon how many people around the world are watching their screens and who feels like playing. And there it is. Professionals know where your stops are. They know there is support at They can afford to sell 2, contracts at 05 and then offer another 2, at 04 and while you and other small traders are busy covering your long positions at 03 and 02, they are covering their short positions. And taking your money. Everyone has a pain threshold and if you can push the market just past that threshold, he will puke out. The idea, obviously, is to try and anticipate which way the most money is going to go next. In order to anticipate this, you have to think like the traders who are trading huge size because they are the ones who are going to move the market. How do I know this is the way the game is played? I worked for a proprietary trading firm in Chicago. Computers and algorithms and high frequency trading machines may work well in tight ranges or choppy markets but they can get hammered just like a trader can get hammered. During big one-way moves, they usually get crushed. As a scalper, you are looking for sharp, fast moves which have a lot of momentum behind them. When the momentum stops, you get out. Even if you refuse to give up the charts and indicators, you could improve your entries and exits by learning how to read the orderbook. Try to figure out how to see the signs that a market is going to bounce or perhaps even reverse. If you can learn how to do this fairly consistently, you can save yourself two or three ticks or more on your winning trades and dramatically improve your bottom line. Some of this may make sense to you. Some of it may not. If your curiosity is piqued, buy the No BS Day Trading basic course. It comes with a 60 day money-back guarantee. You can take a look for no charge. My refund request rate is extremely low but I always honor the requests. Once you read the book and watch the videos several times, I think you trading start to see the advantages which come with learning how to read the order book. The game becomes clearer. Trading reasons for the movements become clearer. It starts to make more sense. Will you make money after going through the course? I have no idea. I cannot guarantee you riches. I cannot make you click your mouse to get into a trade and I cannot make you click your mouse to get out of a trade. I cannot make you sit on your hands and wait for only the prime setups. So take a shot. You have nothing to lose and you might learn a thing or two. Like, why size matters…. Many people think day trading is more risky than position trading. The market always goes up in the long run. The thing to keep in mind is that his grandfather bought it twenty-five years ago. Can you hold something for twenty-five years? Not to mention, the market does not always go up in the long run. It seems that way because when stocks on an index start looking like they may be going the way of the dodo bird, they are removed from the index and replaced with the next hot thing. Stocks have been subtracted and added over the years. It helps keep the illusion alive. I never hold a position overnight. I think position trading is a very bad idea unless you know something no one else does. Do some big traders make money holding positions? But they can afford to hold them. Did I buy it? Boone Pickens does and he can buy enough to make it worthwhile. Even if you make a really good call on a long-term trade, you have to be able to buy or sell enough contracts to make real money. His was the first course I ever bought. A general strategy of his is to wait for a market to reach extremely low levels and then buy it and hold it. What forex novel concept, huh? The thought is that a commodity will not go to zero. Unlike stocks, forex go to zero all the time. So buy some contracts or some out of the money calls. Eventually it will go up again. Supposedly, the man in the cowboy hat was long feeder cattle contracts at the time. The market rebounded and he made a fortune. He claims to have educated over 1, customers. You trading hogs at 27 cents and bail at 22 cents only to watch them go to 18 cents and then rebound to 33 cents. The moral of the story is…it is highly unlikely that you will ever make a fortune position trading unless you already have a fortune. And if you already have a fortune, do something else with your time. The next live U. All the details are available on my "webinars" pages. Daytrading is very risky and you can lose a lot of money doing it. The information contained within this site is for educational purposes only. This a not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities, futures contracts or options. No BS Day Trading Privacy Policy Customer Support. Day Trading with Order Flow. No BS Introduction About me Courses Basic Course Intermediate course Trade review sessions Webinars Webinar overview U. Can you afford to lose? Do you have access to an extremely stable, high-speed internet connection? An inside joke for the traders of the world… If you want to have a decent shot at being profitable, there is one thing in particular that you always have to keep in mind. Let me give you another example. One from my own personal experience. How did that happen? Here are some of the things you will learn from the course: How to anticipate what the most money is going to do next. How to make decisions based on reading the price action. Why discretionary trading will typically outperform an automated system. How to keep from being whipsawed. How to forex exit prices for winning and losing trades just as important as entries if not more so. When it does pay to know what numbers everyone else is watching. How to stay out of the market when volatility dries up. How to determine whether the bids and offers are from major players looking to move real size or if the bids and offers are being thrown up by guys looking to scalp one or two ticks. Why understanding psychology is the most important part of successful trading. You must understand your own psychology as well as that of the traders you are up against. People have brains and emotions. Two things which often work against one another. Which brokers offer the best commission rates. This is extremely important to your bottom line. Do not be afraid to ask for a lower rate. How to determine position size when you first start. Which economic numbers are important and how to trade them. The advantages to trading futures instead of stocks. Which markets are the best for day trading. When to take your hand off the mouse. When to turn off the computer and call it a day…win or lose. Tax advantages of trading futures vs. I trading constantly surprised at how many stock traders do not know about this. The tax laws for futures are much more favorable than they are for stocks. How to keep your overhead to a minimum. Why leasing a seat on an exchange could be well worth your time and money. Webinars The next live U. Subscribe to the Newsletter Subscribe to the No BS newsletter. Recent Post Adapting to change The problems with SIM trading Spoofing is still here. Videos 2 Most watched video on Big Mike's Trading Forum.
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Friedrich-Cofer and Huston (1986) provide a detailed discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of these studies.